The latest season forecast of the United Arab Emirates shows something that none of us are excited about. Continued heat and soon-to-come heavy rainfall is expected through the end of the year. From August to December 2026, the El Niño conditions will continue with a 99% probability. The National Centre of Meteorology claims that the current Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature index stands at 1.2°C, placing the climate pattern within the moderate El Niño category. Here’s what that means for the United Arab Emirates.
What a 99% El Niño probability in the UAE means
Okay, in simple terms, it’s going to be hot and you might not need that winter coat anytime soon. The weather forecast says that the conditions across the tropical Pacific region seem consistent with El Niño. Over the past month, the central and eastern areas of the Pacific have recorded above average temperatures, whereas the western Pacific remained below average.
El Niño is a climate pattern that comprises of ocean and atmospheric changes in conditions around the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This close to the equator, weather patterns change worldwide. United Arab Emirates monitors the Niño 3.4 region as the primary indicator of potential impacts on the country’s climate.
This late in the year, the El Niño is basically the climate regulator and temperatures should not be this high. But alas, the UAE are likely to be near to above season average temperatures between August to December.
The effects will become more noticeable towards the end of the forecast period. Translation: we can only tell if the El Niño is having a difficult year towards the end of December. Pack your winter coats away, it’s going to be a long year.
